亲爱的经济学家，
我今年38岁，对我先生感到相当厌倦。过去两个月来，我一直近乎疯狂地与另一个男人调情。我们经常见面喝酒，而两人的谈话已经开始变得非常暧昧。我确定，如果我想的话，可能会发展到那一步。我应该这么做吗？
希拉(Sheila)，伦敦
亲爱的希拉，
当我听到你的两难困境时，我马上想到了《政治经济学杂志》(Journalof PoliticalEconomy)曾经刊登的、耶鲁大学(Yale)经济学家雷"C."费尔(Ray C.Fair)撰写的一篇旧论文——《婚外情理论》(A Theory of ExtramaritalAffairs)。
费尔教授将婚外情当作一个时间分配问题。这似乎很奇怪。
理性犯罪理论似乎是一个更合适的切入点。
但细想起来，费尔教授的方法或许很有见地：我猜想，婚外情确实占用大量时间，而在多数婚外恋者的生活中，这一世俗现实越来越大。
话虽如此，但如果你来信中说你38岁、对你先生相当厌倦、正考虑练习打羽毛球，他提出的解决这一问题的方法可能也同样适用。人们的感觉是错过了某些东西。我认为，这错过的东西就是“不确定性”：你无法知道婚外情到底多么有趣，你也不知道随着时间的流逝，自己先生的乏味程度是否可能有所增减。进行成本-收益分析将会非常麻烦，但我们可以肯定地说，你潜在的婚外情代表着一个有价值的选择。面对所有选择时，除非这是“深度价内”(deepin themoney)选择，否则，最好先不要做出任何选择——除非你对你先生感到彻底厌烦，以至于你认为你们的婚姻无药可救。
在此之前，为何不享受这种暧昧的谈话呢？或许，这比婚外情本身有趣得多。
DearEconomist,
I am 38 years old, rather bored with my husband, and forthe past two months I have been flirting like mad with another man.We often meet up for a drink and the talk has started to get quitesaucy. I'm sure I could take things further if I wanted. ShouldI?
Sheila, London
Dear Sheila,
When I heard of your dilemma I thought immediately of an oldpaper from the Journal of Political Economy, ”A Theory ofExtramarital Affairs” by Ray C. Fair, an economist at Yale.
Professor Fair modelled affairs as a time-allocation problem.That seems odd.
The theory of rational crime might seem a more promisingstarting point.
But on reflection, Professor Fair's approach may have beenperceptive: I suspect that affairs do take up a lot of time andthat this mundane fact looms large in most adulterers' lives.
That said, his approach to the problem could equally haveapplied if you had written to say that you were 38 years old,rather bored with your husband and were thinking of taking upbadminton. One senses that something is missing.I think theomission is uncertainty. You do not know how much fun an affairwill be. Nor do you know whether your husband is likely to becomemore or less tedious over time. A cost-benefit analysis is going tobe tricky, but we can say for sure that your potential affairrepresents a valuable option. As with all options it may be best torefrain from exercising it until the option is ”deep in themoney” - that is, until you are so thoroughly fed up with yourhusband that you think nothing can save the marriage.
Until then, why not enjoy the saucy talk? It may be a lot morefun than the affair itself.
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